Overview of SIMPLE: the bottom panel (green) refers to supply regions for the aggregate crop commodity which are indexed by continent
Figure 1. Overview of SIMPLE: the bottom panel (green) refers to supply regions for the aggregate crop commodity which are indexed by continent. The upper panel (red) refers to demand regions, indexed by income level. The disposition of crops includes direct consumption, feedstuff use and food processing, as well as biofuels. Adjustment of price in the global crop market ensures that long run supply equals long run demand.
Global agricultural models are becoming indispensable in the debate over climate change impacts and mitigation policies. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important to validate these models and identify critical areas for improvement. In this letter, we illustrate both the opportunities and the challenges in undertaking such model validation, using the SIMPLE model of global agriculture. We look back at the long run historical period 1961–2006 and, using a few key historical drivers—population, incomes and total factor productivity—we find that SIMPLE is able to accurately reproduce historical changes in cropland use, crop price, crop production and average crop yields at the global scale. Equally important is our investigation into how the specific assumptions embedded in many agricultural models will likely influence these results. We find that those global models which are largely biophysical—thereby ignoring the price responsiveness of demand and supply—are likely to understate changes in crop production, while failing to capture the changes in cropland use and crop price. Likewise, global models which incorporate economic responses, but do so based on limited time series estimates of these responses, are likely to understate land use change and overstate price changes.