Maps of the smallest evaluated change in temperature (smallest Δ<em>T</em><sub><em>q</em></sub>) over the 1950–2011 period for nighttime winter temperatures at the following quantiles of the cumulative distribution function: (a) <em>q</em> = 0.95, (b) <em>q</em> = 0.75, (c) <em>q</em> = 0.50, (d) <em>q</em> = 0.25, and (e) <em>q</em> = 0.05 David A Stainforth Sandra C Chapman Nicholas W Watkins 10.6084/m9.figshare.1011618.v1 https://iop.figshare.com/articles/figure/_Maps_of_the_smallest_evaluated_change_in_temperature_smallest_em_T_em_sub_em_q_em_sub_over_the_1950/1011618 <p><strong>Figure 5.</strong> Maps of the smallest evaluated change in temperature (smallest Δ<em>T</em><sub><em>q</em></sub>) over the 1950–2011 period for nighttime winter temperatures at the following quantiles of the cumulative distribution function: (a) <em>q</em> = 0.95, (b) <em>q</em> = 0.75, (c) <em>q</em> = 0.50, (d) <em>q</em> = 0.25, and (e) <em>q</em> = 0.05.</p> <p><strong>Abstract</strong></p> <p>Climate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present day. When making climate sensitive decisions, policy makers and adaptation planners would benefit from information on local scales and for user-specific quantiles (e.g. the hottest/coldest 5% of days) and thresholds (e.g. days above 28 ° C), not just mean changes. Here, we translate observations of weather into observations of climate change, providing maps of the changing shape of climatic temperature distributions across Europe since 1950. The provision of such information from observations is valuable to support decisions designed to be robust in today's climate, while also providing data against which climate forecasting methods can be judged and interpreted. The general statement that the hottest summer days are warming faster than the coolest is made decision relevant by exposing how the regions of greatest warming are quantile and threshold dependent. In a band from Northern France to Denmark, where the response is greatest, the hottest days in the temperature distribution have seen changes of at least 2 ° C, over four times the global mean change over the same period. In winter the coldest nights are warming fastest, particularly in Scandinavia.</p> 2013-09-11 00:00:00 distribution function summer days adaptation planners policy makers temperature distributions temperature distribution quantile climate forecasting methods winter temperatures support decisions Northern France climate change decision makers warming Environmental Science